Listen up

Two days in. Two record closes. The market is acting like it just got a promotion and a raise at the same time.

After back-to-back rip sessions Monday and Tuesday, the S&P 500 posted its first record close since early June — its 25th of 2026 — and the Dow hit its 23rd record close of the year. Oil is down. Earnings are cooking. Iran might actually be talking to someone.

Wednesday is giving investors a minute to breathe. The Dow is outperforming midday while tech takes a breather — a defensive tilt after two days of straight aggression.

The week isn't over. A lot of money is still on the table.

Numbers Time

Check In

ADP JOBS DATA CAME IN SOFT

U.S. private employers added only 44,000 jobs in July, well short of the 65,000 economists expected. June's number came in at 95,000. That's a meaningful step down. All eyes now shift to Friday's official July jobs report — if that misses too, the rate cut conversation gets loud again fast.

IRAN DEAL GETTING CLOSER

President Trump said a deal on the Strait of Hormuz could come as early as Wednesday. Qatar has reportedly signaled progress toward a short-term agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Oil keeps drifting lower every time this headline drops. If a deal actually prints, energy gets smoked and the rest of the market pops.

EARNINGS SEASON IS HISTORICALLY STRONG

Before the noise of individual reactions distracts you — zoom out. Of the ~300 S&P 500 companies that have reported, 85% beat expectations and aggregate profit growth is tracking above 47%. That number keeps getting repeated because it keeps being true. The fundamentals are real.

"Y'ALL STREET" IS HAPPENING

Goldman Sachs is supersizing its presence in Dallas amid a broader Texas financial boom. Local leaders and bank executives are calling it "Y'all Street." Dallas is eating. Houston too. New York should be paying attention.

WOW

Tuesday was one of those days where everything just worked.

Stocks climbed across the board as Palantir surged nearly 17% in premarket trading after its blockbuster earnings, setting the tone before the opening bell even rang. The AI trade was fully back on.

The Nasdaq-100 led the session with a gain of over 3%, powered by a broad comeback in chip stocks and the continued tailwinds from Amazon and Palantir's results in recent days. The Nasdaq Composite added 2.6%.

McDonald's and Caterpillar became the latest firms to beat estimates, while Qatar signaled early progress toward a short-term deal between the U.S. and Iran — crude fell another 2% on the news, giving equities an additional boost.

By the close, the S&P 500 and the Dow both sat at record highs. Midway through the session, a remarkable 68% of all U.S. issues were advancing. Not a handful of mega caps carrying dead weight — broad, real participation.

Then SpaceX and AMD reported after the bell. Both beat. Both dropped. The market giveth, the market taketh away — sometimes in the same 24 hours.

LOOK OUT

Thursday — $DIS ( ▲ 0.43% ) Disney | $APP ( ▼ 0.97% ) AppLovin | $ABNB ( ▲ 1.24% ) Airbnb | $SHOP ( ▲ 1.41% ) Shopify | $LLY ( ▲ 0.88% ) Eli Lilly | $PFE ( ▲ 1.01% ) Pfizer

Thursday — SpaceX lockup expiration. Roughly 911.5 million shares — worth approximately $116–$123 billion — become eligible for sale starting Thursday. That is one of the largest lockup expirations in market history. If insiders start selling into an already-down stock, this could get messy fast. Watch $SPCX ( ▲ 2.22% ) volume Thursday morning.

Friday — July Jobs Report. The big one. After a soft ADP print, this number matters. A weak print could shift rate cut odds significantly heading into September. Everything else is noise until 8:30 AM.

HUH

SpaceX — the most hyped IPO in the history of Wall Street — reported its first-ever public earnings on Tuesday.

The company raised $85.7 billion in the largest IPO ever, hit $225 a share in its first week, and has since fallen more than 45%.

Then Tuesday night it posted $7.8 billion in revenue. Beat the number. And still dropped 8%.

Why? Because SpaceX spent $15.8 billion on AI capex in a single quarter. That's more than it brought in. The company is burning cash faster than a Starship burns fuel — and at least Starship has a destination.

Elon built a rocket company, took it public at the biggest valuation in IPO history, reported a genuine revenue beat, and still watched the stock crater.

Somewhere on a yacht, an early employee who got in at $10 a share is about to unlock $50 million worth of stock on Thursday and absolutely does not care.

The market is a machine for humbling people. Today it's humbling Elon. Tomorrow it'll humble someone else.

Wrap It Up

This week has been a masterclass in what markets actually reward right now — and it's not just beating the number.

Palantir beat. Up 30%. SpaceX beat. Down 8%. AMD beat. Down 7%. Same earnings season, completely different outcomes. The difference? Guidance and capital discipline. Palantir showed accelerating demand with expanding margins. SpaceX and AMD showed accelerating spend with no near-term path to profitability on that spend.

The market is fine with growth. It is not fine with spending your way to growth without a clear return timeline.

Keep that lens on for the rest of the week. Disney, AppLovin, Airbnb — the question isn't whether they beat. It's what they say about the back half of the year and what it's going to cost them to get there.

Friday's jobs number is the wildcard that overrides everything. Weak print, rate cut odds go up, bond yields drop, and the market probably rips. Strong print, Fed stays patient, and the rate-sensitive trade gets squeezed.

Either way — stay ready. This week isn't done yet.

See you Friday.

— The Market Standard

This is NOT financial advice. Invest at your own risk.